Today, California is facing a historic El Nino winter that could bring catastrophic flooding, even as experts remain unsure how strong the storms will really get.
Coastal flooding and beach erosion are highly confident risks as king tides approach, but confidence in freshwater flooding and heavy winter storms is far weaker. The federal outlook pegs Southern California at a 60 to 70 percent chance of above-normal precipitation from January through March, with a 30 to 40 percent chance of near or below normal. Expert analysis suggests El Nino tilts the odds toward a wetter winter, but it is not a guarantee. A climate scientist warned that a worst-case storm could bring more than two and a half times average precipitation and that the odds of a top ten wet winter are high. The National Weather Service noted El Nino is strengthening and could become the strongest on record since 1950, though some experts cautioned that very strong El Ninos have not always meant massive floods. Coastal flood risk is already high after record sea level breaks, and forecasters noted total sea levels could be 2 to 3 feet higher than late October records if a moderate or stronger storm aligns with peak king tides.