Vice President JD Vance's secret Iran polling, which showed a razor-thin public mandate for war, helped push Trump into conflict that now drives Republican election losses.
Vance teamed with pollster Mark Mitchell to ask voters whether they would support a regime-change war in Iran, how many U.S. casualties were acceptable, and if the president should seek congressional approval. The January 2026 survey found 44% of likely voters backed military action, 43% opposed, 65% wanted congressional approval, and 62% accepted fewer than 100 combat deaths. An additional 50% said they would support defending Iranian protesters, while 38% opposed intervention.
Roughly a month after the poll, the United States and Israel launched targeted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, killing Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict began, Mitchell has become a vocal critic of Israel, promoting the unsubstantiated claim that Trump entered the war at the behest of Jewish donors and calling for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Exit polls showed 34% of voters called the war decisive for their congressional choice, 40% said it was a major factor, and 63% judged Trump's decision to strike Iran wrong. Other exit polls showed 74% of voters saw the war as a crucial or major factor. Yesterday, Vance blamed the conflict for the GOP's crushing defeat, declaring, "The reason we lost is the war."